SIPTA Summer School 2022

15 – 19 August 2022, University of Bristol


Group picture


About

Welcome to the SIPTA Summer School 2022!

The Society for Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications

The members of SIPTA, the Society for Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications, are convinced that there is more to uncertainty than probabilities. There is much more, in fact. Do you like priors but don't love precise distributions? What about incomparability without indifference? Would you like to model uncertainty without any probabilities at all? You're in luck! There are numerous mathematical models that can measure chance or uncertainty without sharp numerical probabilities. We refer to these as imprecise probabilities.

SIPTA is in charge of the organisation of the biennial ISIPTA Conferences in odd years, and the SIPTA Summer Schools in even years.

Nikos Gamez–Konek     

"Imprecise probabilities are the only treats I need."
— Jason Konek, 2021












The SIPTA Summer School 2022

The SIPTA Summer School is meant to serve as an introduction to imprecise probabilities and its applications for master's and doctoral students, and more generally to any scholar that is interested in becoming acquainted with the theory. The edition of 2022 was organised by the Department of Philosophy of the University of Bristol.

If you missed the password, please contact Arthur Van Camp

Organising committee

Jason Konek, chair
Fabio Cozman, external advisor
Kevin Blackwell
Catrin Campbell-Moore
Giacomo Molinari
Richard Pettigrew
Arthur Van Camp
Charlotte Withers

The organisation of this edition of the SIPTA summer school was made possible by Jason Konek's ERC-funded Epistemic Utility for Imprecise Probability project.

Location

Coutts Lecture Theatre 3.31 (3rd floor), Wills Memorial Building, Queens Rd, Bristol BS8 1QE, United Kingdom


View larger map

Lecturers

  • Gert de Cooman Monday, 15 August

    Professor in Uncertainty Modelling and Systems Science at the Foundations Lab for imprecise probabilities of Ghent University

  • Teddy Seidenfeld Tuesday, 16 August

    Herbert A. Simon University Professor of Philosophy and Statistics at Carnegie Mellon University

  • Thomas Augustin Wednesday, 17 August, morning

    Dean of Studies and Program Coordinator, Method(olog)ische Grundlagen der Statistik und ihre Anwendungen, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich

  • Alessandro Antonucci Thursday, 18 August

    Senior Lecturer-Researcher at IDSIA

  • Cassio de Campos Thursday, 18 August

    Associate professor at Eindhoven University of Technology

  • Fabio Cozman Thursday, 18 August

    Director of the Center for Artificial Intelligence at USP

  • Jason Konek Friday, 19 August

    Senior lecturer in philosophy at the University of Bristol

  • Ben Levinstein Friday, 19 August

    Assistant professor of philosophy at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Schedule

Please find the final schedule below. Download a pdf for offline use.

All times are in British Summer Time.

Monday 15

Tuesday 16

Wednesday 17

Thursday 18

Friday 19

 

8:30 – 8:45 Registration

 

8:45 – 9:00 Opening

 

9:00 – 10:45
Gert de Cooman

Foundations of imprecise probabilities

9:00 – 10:45
Teddy Seidenfeld

Decision making

9:00 – 10:45
Thomas Augustin

Statistics and imprecise probabilities

9:00 – 10:45
Alessandro Antonucci, Cassio de Campos & Fabio Cozman

Imprecise probabilities in artificial intelligence

9:00 – 10:45
Jason Konek & Ben Levinstein

Accuracy for imprecise probabilities

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

10:45 – 11:15 Coffee

10:45 – 11:15 Coffee

10:45 – 11:15 Coffee

10:45 – 11:15 Coffee

10:45 – 11:15 Coffee

 
 
 

11:15 – 12:45
Gert de Cooman

Foundations of imprecise probabilities

11:15 – 12:45
Teddy Seidenfeld

Decision making

11:15 – 12:45
Thomas Augustin

Statistics and imprecise probabilities

11:15 – 12:45
Alessandro Antonucci, Cassio de Campos & Fabio Cozman

Imprecise probabilities in artificial intelligence

11:15 – 12:45
Jason Konek & Ben Levinstein

Accuracy for imprecise probabilities

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

12:45 – 14:00 Lunch

12:45 – 14:00 Lunch

12:45 – 13:15 Lunch

12:45 – 14:00 Lunch

12:45 – 14:00 Lunch

 
 
 

After lunch

Excursion: Canoeing through the Wye Valley (2.5 – 3 hours)

Excursion dinner at Old Court Hotel

Transport from and to Bristol by coach

 
 
 
 
 

14:00 – 15:30
Gert de Cooman

Foundations of imprecise probabilities

14:00 – 15:30
Teddy Seidenfeld

Decision making

14:00 – 15:30
Alessandro Antonucci, Cassio de Campos & Fabio Cozman

Imprecise probabilities in artificial intelligence

14:00 – 15:30
Jason Konek & Ben Levinstein

Accuracy for imprecise probabilities

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee

 
 
 

16:00 – 17:30
Gert de Cooman

Foundations of imprecise probabilities

16:00 – 17:30
Teddy Seidenfeld

Decision making

16:00 – 17:30
Alessandro Antonucci, Cassio de Campos & Fabio Cozman

Imprecise probabilities in artificial intelligence

16:00 – 17:30
Discussion panel

Open topics in imprecise probabilities and directions for future research

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Lecture material

You can find all the lecture materials underneath. Some weeks after the school, the recordings will be published here, too.

Day Lecturer Topic
Monday, 15 August Gert de Cooman Ghent University Foundations of imprecise probabilities

slides
1 Introduction to IP
2 Imprecision
3 Desirability
4 Towards other models
5 Non-binary preference
6 Randomness + imprecision
Tuesday, 16 August Teddy Seidenfeld Carnegie Mellon University Decision making

slides
Agenda
Session 1: Background on IP and de Finetti's coherence
Session 2: Conditional Probabilities and the value of information
Session 3: Axiomatic Coherent Choice Functions for IP Theory
Session 4: Three opportunities for IP DT
Wednesday, 17 August, morning Thomas Augustin Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Statistics and imprecise probabilities

slides
Statistics and Imprecise Probabilities
Thursday, 18 August Alessandro Antonucci IDSIA Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence Research
Cassio de Campos Eindhoven University of Technology
Fabio Cozman Universidade de São Paulo
Imprecise probabilities in artificial intelligence

slides
Overview
Session 1, Section 1: AI & IP
Session 1, Section 2: Bayesian networks
Session 1, Section 3: On the Unreasonable Effectiveness of Deep Learning and the Need for a Causal AI
Session 2, Section 1: Probabilistic Logic
Session 2, Section 2: Probabilistic Logic Programming
Session 2, Section 3: Probabilistic Argumentation
Session 2, Section 4: Markov Decision Processes with Imprecise Probabilities (MDPIPs)
Session 3, Section 1: Credal nets and Probabilistic Circuits
Session 3, Section 2: Generative Random Forests
Session 4: Structural Causal Models are (solvable by) Credal Nets

R code and examples
Find a list of examples at decampos.nl/siptaschool2022.
Friday, 19 August Jason Konek University of Bristol
Ben Levinstein University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Accuracy for imprecise probabilities

slides
Scoring Rules
IP Scoring Rules – Theory
IP Scoring Rules – Application

programme files
IP loss     Spherical loss

software requirements
Click to view installation instructions
Please bring your computer to the lecture, and have the following programmes installed prior to the lecture.

Anaconda Follow these instructions: WindowsmacOS.

Visual Studio Code To install Visual Studio Code via Anaconda, click Install under VS Code in your Anaconda Navigator.

PyTorch To install PyTorch via Anaconda, launch VS Code from Anaconda, open Terminal, and run the following Conda command:

conda install pytorch torchvision -c pytorch

Torchquad To install Torchquad via Anaconda, launch VS Code from Anaconda, open Terminal, and run the following Conda command:

conda install -c conda-forge torchquad

Registration

Registration is now closed.

We will have a limited number of seats available for in-person attendance (~40 people), but virtually unlimited virtual capacity. The fee for virtual registration will be £25. We have two options for in-person attendance: Room and Board (£250) and Lunch Only (£25).

attending virtually: £25
attending in-person Room and Board: £250
attending in-person Lunch Only: £25

To register, please fill out this registration form by 15 May 2022. You will need a small statement explaining your research interests (in text format) and a short CV (as a pdf or document file).

Scholarship/Bursaries

Application for scholarships/bursaries is now closed.

If you are a student who would like to attend but would find the cost to be a hardship, we would like to help. In addition to waiving the fee for registration, we may be able to defray travel expenses. When filling out the registration form, please take care to (1) indicate that you are a student, and (2) check the box expressing interest in being considered.

Payment

The deadline for payment has now been passed.

Please follow the instructions on our payment website to pay the registration fee by 15 June. If you have any questions, please contact Charlotte Withers.

Accommodation

For in-person participants, we have two registration options:

Room and Board The fee is £250. This includes student accommodation at Goldney Hall for the nights of 14 – 19 August (i.e., ending the morning of the 20th). Breakfast will be included (at Goldney Hall), and we will also cater lunch every day of the summer school.

Lunch Only The fee is £25. This option includes the same daily catered lunches as the Room and Board option, but no accommodation or breakfast.

Note on Accommodation at Goldney Hall Not all of the available rooms have an en suite bathroom; some rooms will share a communal bathroom. If you need a private bathroom, please indicate this on the form and give a brief explanation of why. We will do our best to assign rooms to accommodate everyone who has a compelling need.

Check-in Clifton Hill House      If arriving between 7am – 10pm please report to Clifton Hill House, main reception, where a member of staff will come to meet you. Clifton Hill House is a very short walk away and is located slightly further down Lower Clifton Hill on the other side of Constitution Hill (see right a picture of its entrance). If arriving after 10pm please call the 'Out of Hours Duty Mobile' and wait at the accommodation entrance of Goldney Hall and a member of our team will greet you and show you to your room.





View larger map

How to get there

Travel from Bristol Airport

  • Bus: Bristol Airport to Bristol Temple Meads via Airport Flyer; Bristol Temple Meads to Goldney Hall by local bus (#8) to Victoria Square.

  • Taxi: directly from airport to Goldney Hall.

Travel from Heathrow

  • Train: Heathrow to London Paddington via Heathrow Express; London Paddington to Bristol Temple Meads via Great Western Railway; Bristol Temple Meads to Goldney Hall by local bus (#8) to Victoria Square, or taxi.

  • Bus: Heathrow to Bristol Bus Station via National Express; Bristol Bus Station to Goldney Hall by local bus (#8) to Victoria Square, or by taxi.

Important Dates

Registration via this form: 15 May 2022
Pay fee by: 15 June 2022
SIPTA Summer School 2022: 15 – 19 August 2022

Contact

For more information please contact Jason Konek.
For comments about the website, please contact Arthur Van Camp.