About
Welcome to the SIPTA Summer School 2022!
The Society for Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications
The members of SIPTA, the Society for Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications, are convinced that there is more to uncertainty than probabilities. There is much more, in fact. Do you like priors but don't love precise distributions? What about incomparability without indifference? Would you like to model uncertainty without any probabilities at all? You're in luck! There are numerous mathematical models that can measure chance or uncertainty without sharp numerical probabilities. We refer to these as imprecise probabilities.
SIPTA is in charge of the organisation of the biennial ISIPTA Conferences in odd years, and the SIPTA Summer Schools in even years.
"Imprecise probabilities are the only treats I need."
— Jason Konek, 2021
The SIPTA Summer School 2022
The SIPTA Summer School is meant to serve as an introduction to imprecise probabilities and its applications for master's and doctoral students, and more generally to any scholar that is interested in becoming acquainted with the theory. The edition of 2022 was organised by the Department of Philosophy of the University of Bristol.
If you missed the password, please contact Arthur Van Camp
Organising committee
Jason Konek, chair
Fabio Cozman, external advisor
Kevin Blackwell
Catrin Campbell-Moore
Giacomo Molinari
Richard Pettigrew
Arthur Van Camp
Charlotte Withers
The organisation of this edition of the SIPTA summer school was made possible by Jason Konek's ERC-funded Epistemic Utility for Imprecise Probability project.
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Location
Coutts Lecture Theatre 3.31 (3rd floor), Wills Memorial Building, Queens Rd, Bristol BS8 1QE, United Kingdom
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Lecturers
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Gert de Cooman Monday, 15 August
Professor in Uncertainty Modelling and Systems Science at the Foundations Lab for imprecise probabilities of Ghent University
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Teddy Seidenfeld Tuesday, 16 August
Herbert A. Simon University Professor of Philosophy and Statistics at Carnegie Mellon University
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Thomas Augustin Wednesday, 17 August, morning
Dean of Studies and Program Coordinator, Method(olog)ische Grundlagen der Statistik und ihre Anwendungen, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
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Alessandro Antonucci Thursday, 18 August
Senior Lecturer-Researcher at IDSIA
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Cassio de Campos Thursday, 18 August
Associate professor at Eindhoven University of Technology
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Fabio Cozman Thursday, 18 August
Director of the Center for Artificial Intelligence at USP
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Jason Konek Friday, 19 August
Senior lecturer in philosophy at the University of Bristol
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Ben Levinstein Friday, 19 August
Assistant professor of philosophy at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Schedule
Please find the final schedule below. Download a pdf for offline use.
All times are in British Summer Time.
Monday 15 |
Tuesday 16 |
Wednesday 17 |
Thursday 18 |
Friday 19 |
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8:30 – 8:45 Registration | |||||||||
8:45 – 9:00 Opening | |||||||||
9:00 – 10:45 | 9:00 – 10:45 | 9:00 – 10:45 | 9:00 – 10:45 | 9:00 – 10:45 | |||||
10:45 – 11:15 Coffee | 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee | 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee | 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee | 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee | |||||
11:15 – 12:45 | 11:15 – 12:45 | 11:15 – 12:45 | 11:15 – 12:45 | 11:15 – 12:45 | |||||
12:45 – 14:00 Lunch | 12:45 – 14:00 Lunch | 12:45 – 13:15 Lunch | 12:45 – 14:00 Lunch | 12:45 – 14:00 Lunch | |||||
After lunch | |||||||||
14:00 – 15:30 | 14:00 – 15:30 | 14:00 – 15:30 | 14:00 – 15:30 | ||||||
15:30 – 16:00 Coffee | 15:30 – 16:00 Coffee | 15:30 – 16:00 Coffee | 15:30 – 16:00 Coffee | ||||||
16:00 – 17:30 | 16:00 – 17:30 | 16:00 – 17:30 | 16:00 – 17:30 | ||||||
Lecture material
You can find all the lecture materials underneath. Some weeks after the school, the recordings will be published here, too.
| Day | Lecturer | Topic |
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| Monday, 15 August |
Gert de Cooman
Ghent University
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Foundations of imprecise probabilities slides 1 Introduction to IP 2 Imprecision 3 Desirability 4 Towards other models 5 Non-binary preference 6 Randomness + imprecision |
| Tuesday, 16 August |
Teddy Seidenfeld
Carnegie Mellon University
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Decision making slides Agenda Session 1: Background on IP and de Finetti's coherence Session 2: Conditional Probabilities and the value of information Session 3: Axiomatic Coherent Choice Functions for IP Theory Session 4: Three opportunities for IP DT |
| Wednesday, 17 August, morning |
Thomas Augustin
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
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Statistics and imprecise probabilities slides Statistics and Imprecise Probabilities |
| Thursday, 18 August |
Alessandro Antonucci
IDSIA Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence Research
Cassio de Campos
Eindhoven University of Technology
Fabio Cozman
Universidade de São Paulo
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Imprecise probabilities in artificial intelligence slides Overview Session 1, Section 1: AI & IP Session 1, Section 2: Bayesian networks Session 1, Section 3: On the Unreasonable Effectiveness of Deep Learning and the Need for a Causal AI Session 2, Section 1: Probabilistic Logic Session 2, Section 2: Probabilistic Logic Programming Session 2, Section 3: Probabilistic Argumentation Session 2, Section 4: Markov Decision Processes with Imprecise Probabilities (MDPIPs) Session 3, Section 1: Credal nets and Probabilistic Circuits Session 3, Section 2: Generative Random Forests Session 4: Structural Causal Models are (solvable by) Credal Nets R code and examples Find a list of examples at decampos.nl/siptaschool2022. |
| Friday, 19 August |
Jason Konek
University of Bristol
Ben Levinstein
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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Accuracy for imprecise probabilities slides Scoring Rules IP Scoring Rules – Theory IP Scoring Rules – Application programme files IP loss Spherical loss software requirements Click to view installation instructionsPlease bring your computer to the lecture, and have the following programmes installed prior to the lecture. Anaconda Follow these instructions: Windows – macOS. Visual Studio Code To install Visual Studio Code via Anaconda, click Install under VS Code in your Anaconda Navigator. PyTorch To install PyTorch via Anaconda, launch VS Code from Anaconda, open Terminal, and run the following Conda command: conda install pytorch torchvision -c pytorch Torchquad To install Torchquad via Anaconda, launch VS Code from Anaconda, open Terminal, and run the following Conda command:conda install -c conda-forge torchquad |
Registration
Registration is now closed.
We will have a limited number of seats available for in-person attendance (~40 people), but virtually unlimited virtual capacity. The fee for virtual registration will be £25. We have two options for in-person attendance: Room and Board (£250) and Lunch Only (£25).
attending virtually: £25
attending in-person Room and Board: £250
attending in-person Lunch Only: £25
To register, please fill out this registration form by 15 May 2022. You will need a small statement explaining your research interests (in text format) and a short CV (as a pdf or document file).
Scholarship/Bursaries
Application for scholarships/bursaries is now closed.
If you are a student who would like to attend but would find the cost to be a hardship, we would like to help. In addition to waiving the fee for registration, we may be able to defray travel expenses. When filling out the registration form, please take care to (1) indicate that you are a student, and (2) check the box expressing interest in being considered.
Payment
The deadline for payment has now been passed.
Please follow the instructions on our payment website to pay the registration fee by 15 June. If you have any questions, please contact Charlotte Withers.
Accommodation
For in-person participants, we have two registration options:
Room and Board The fee is £250. This includes student accommodation at Goldney Hall for the nights of 14 – 19 August (i.e., ending the morning of the 20th). Breakfast will be included (at Goldney Hall), and we will also cater lunch every day of the summer school.
Lunch Only The fee is £25. This option includes the same daily catered lunches as the Room and Board option, but no accommodation or breakfast.
Note on Accommodation at Goldney Hall Not all of the available rooms have an en suite bathroom; some rooms will share a communal bathroom. If you need a private bathroom, please indicate this on the form and give a brief explanation of why. We will do our best to assign rooms to accommodate everyone who has a compelling need.
Check-in
If arriving between 7am – 10pm please report to Clifton Hill House, main reception, where a member of staff will come to meet
you.
Clifton Hill House is a very short walk away and is located slightly further down Lower Clifton Hill on the other side of Constitution Hill (see right a picture of its entrance).
If arriving after 10pm please call the 'Out of Hours Duty Mobile' and wait at the accommodation entrance of Goldney Hall and a member of our team will greet you and show you to your room.
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How to get there
Travel from Bristol Airport
Bus: Bristol Airport to Bristol Temple Meads via Airport Flyer; Bristol Temple Meads to Goldney Hall by local bus (#8) to Victoria Square.
Taxi: directly from airport to Goldney Hall.
Travel from Heathrow
Train: Heathrow to London Paddington via Heathrow Express; London Paddington to Bristol Temple Meads via Great Western Railway; Bristol Temple Meads to Goldney Hall by local bus (#8) to Victoria Square, or taxi.
Bus: Heathrow to Bristol Bus Station via National Express; Bristol Bus Station to Goldney Hall by local bus (#8) to Victoria Square, or by taxi.
Important Dates
Registration via this form: 15 May 2022
Pay fee by: 15 June 2022
SIPTA Summer School 2022: 15 – 19 August 2022
Contact
For more information please contact Jason Konek.
For comments about the website, please contact Arthur Van Camp.